Managing the Development of the Pedagogical System of a Private Higher Education Institution in Conditions of Geopolitical Instability

Managing the development of the pedagogical system of a private educational institution of higher education in the context of geopolitical instability is extremely relevant issue due to increased global tensions, economic pressure on Russia, and threats to the country’s international security. University leaders face two major tasks – to maintain the sustainability of the university’s development in such conditions and to lay the foundation in advance for adapting the higher education system to new socio-economic realities.

The purpose of the study is to scientifically justify the effectiveness of prognostic approach to managing the development of the pedagogical system of a private educational organization of higher education, which assures the university’s sustainable development in geopolitically unstable situation.

The research base – private educational institution of higher education named after V. G. Timiryasov (IEML). 700 teachers and representatives of the administrative and managerial staff of the university participated in the study. Diagnostic methods: 1) a survey using two author’s questionnaires; 2) testing “Seashore Group Cohesiveness”.

Study results showed that effective management of the development of the university’s pedagogical system in the context of geopolitical turbulence is carried out on a predictive basis using a relational approach, and the most preferred management style is the visionary style. The positive dynamics in the level of group cohesion of Kazan Innovative University named after V. G. Timiryasov employees during the period of increasing geopolitical instability from 2022 to 2025 proved the effectiveness of the university development strategy chosen by the rector of the university, the management style and key approaches to management activities – predictive and relational.

1. Abdullayeva, R. A. (2014). Instability as one of the possible states of the social system. Uspekhi sovremennogo estestvoznaniya – Advances in current natural sciences, 11, 118–121.

2. Akour, M., & Alenezi, M. (2022). Higher Education Future in the Era of Digital Transformation.

3. Education Sciences, 12(11), 784. https://doi.org/10.3390/educsci12110784

4. Asaul, A. N., & Kaparov, B. M. (2010). Management of higher education institutions in an innovative economy. Sovremennye naukoemkiye tekhnologii – Modern high-tech technologies, 2, 140–140.

5. Cai, W., Chen, Y., & Fan, X. (2023). A Future-Oriented Emotion Process: How visionary leadership contributes to team member proactivity. Academy of Management Proceedings, 2023(1). https://doi.org/10.5465/AMPROC.2023.18273abstract

6. Cai, Y., Ma, J., & Chen, Q. (2020). Higher Education in Innovation Ecosystems. Sustainability, 12(11), 4376. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114376

7. Gershunsky, B. S. (1986). Pedagogical prognostics: methodology, theory, practice. Vishcha shkola.

8. Goncharov, A. S., & Uvarova, G. G. (2023). Regional policy of Russia in the context of geopolitical turbulence in the 2020s: features of implementation and development trends. Gosudarstvennoe i municipal’noe upravlenie. Uchenye zapiski – State and Municipal Management. Scholar Notes, 4, 156–163. https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2023-1-4-156-163

9. Humphreys, L., Korotov, K., & Ramo, L. G. (2017). Behavior of Charismatic Leaders and Follower’s Attributional Style, Shared Vision, and Acceptance. Academy of Management Proceedings, 2017(1), 12445. https://doi.org/10.5465/AMBPP.2017.12445abstract

10. Jaqua, E., & Jaqua, T. (2021). Visionary leadership. Quantum Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2(6), 89–92. https://doi.org/10.55197/qjssh.v2i6.109

11. Konyshev, V. N., & Sergunin, A. A. (2024). Russian-American Scientific Cooperation in the Arctic in the Age of Geopolitical Turbulence. Vestnik Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya 4. Istoriya. Regionovedenie. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya – Science Journal of Volgograd State University. History. Area Studies. International Relations, 29(1), 138–144. https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2024.1.12

12. Kostenko, E. P., & Gozalova, A. V. (2022). The reforming of the sphere for higher education in Russia: genesis, features, and impact on social and labor relations at the university. Gosudarstvennoye i munitsipalnoe upravleniye. Uchenye zapiski – State and Municipal Management. Scholar Notes, 4, 208–222. https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2022-1-4-208-222

13. Kuzmina, N. V. (Ed.). (2002). The concept of a “pedagogical system” and criteria for its assessment. Methods of systemic pedagogical research (pp. 7–52). National Education.

14. Lenkov, R. V. (2020). Higher education as a resource for managing the socio-cultural modernization of regions: monograph. INFRA–M.

15. Liao, S., Zhou, X., Guo, Z., & Li, Z. (2019). How Does Leader Narcissism Influence Employee Voice: The Attribution of Leader Impression Management and Leader-Member Exchange. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(10), 1819. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16101819

16. Liu, L., Hong, X., Wen, W., Xie, Z., & Coates, H. (2020). Global university president leadership characteristics and dynamics. Studies in Higher Education, 45(10), 2036–2044. https://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1823639

17. Lovaas, B. J., Jungert, T., Van Den Broeck, A., & Haug, H. (2018). What fosters transformational leadership? Academy of Management Proceedings, 2018(1), 12413. https://doi.org/10.5465/AMBPP.2018.12413abstract

18. Mankovsky, I. A. (2024). State management of the national economy in conditions of geopolitical instability. Gosudarstvennoe i munitsipalnoye upravlenie. Uchenye zapiski – State and Municipal Management. Scholar Notes, 3, 38–45. https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2024-1-3-38-45

19. Medynskaya, I. V. (2023). Current trends and prospects of international cooperation in the education system in the context of geopolitical turbulence. Russia: trends and development prospects, 18-2, 408–412.

20. Miller, M. T., & Gearhart, G. D. (2021). Presidential Interactions with Faculty Senates: Expectations and Practices. International Journal of Educational and Pedagogical Sciences, 15(5), 585–589.

21. Mu, Y., & Li, X. (2024). Is Visionary Leadership a Valid Leadership? A Meta-Analysis. Academy of Management Proceedings, 2024(1). https://doi.org/10.5465/AMPROC.2024.19534abstract

22. Mukushev, B. A. (2008). Synergetics in the education system. Obrazovaniye i nauka – Education and Science, 3(51), 105–122.

23. Nadutkina, I. E., Konev, I. V., Kameneva, T. N., & Znakharchuk, F. R. (2023). Factors of civic engagement of young people in the context of geopolitical instability. Vlast’ – The Authority, 31(3), 25–32. https://doi.org/10.31171/vlast.v31i3.9618

24. Prigozhin, I. R. (1991). Philosophy of instability. Voprosy filosofii – Questions of Philosophy, 6, 46–57. Reznik, S. D. (2018). Change management in higher education: monograph. INFRA–M.

25. Ryndak, V. G. (2000). The synergetic approach to education. Theoretical and methodological aspects. Pedagogical thought and education of the XXI century: Russia – Germany (pp. 40–51).

26. Savvinov, V. M. (2022). The mission of universities to ensure Russia’s territorial cohesion during global turbulence. Vestnik Severo-Vostochnogo federal’nogo universiteta im. M.K. Ammosova. Seriya “Pedagogika. Psihologiya. Filosofiya – Vestnik of North-Eastern Federal University. Pedagogics. Psychology. Philosophy, 3, 39–50.

27. Seashore, S. E. (1955). Group Cohesiveness in the industrial work group. Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research.

28. Sharonin, Yu. V. (1999). Synergetics in management of educational institutions. Vysshee obrazovaniye – Higher education, 4, 14–18.

29. Shlychkov, V. V., Bataykin, P. A., & Nestulaeva, D. R. (2024). Sovereignization as a mechanism of effective economic security of Russia in the context of increasing geopolitical and geo-economic turbulence. Ekonomika i upravlenie – Economics and Management, 30(8), 972–986. https://doi.org/10.35854/1998-1627-2024-8-972-986

30. Simonov, V. P., & Simonov, P. A. (1994). A systematic approach is the basis of pedagogical management. Pedagogika – Pedagogy, 1, 14–18.

31. Timiryasova, A. V. (2024). Pedagogical system of management of development of private innovative university through the prism of human relations. Izvestiya Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo pedagogicheskogo universiteta – Ivzestiya of the Volgograd State Pedagogical University, 4(187), 72–79.

32. Yangirova, E. I., & Musin, U. R. (2021). Relationship between the Higher Education System and the Economic Development of the Region. Ekonomika i upravlenie: nauchno-prakticheskij zhurnal – Economics and Management: Scientific and Practical Journal, 6(162), 29–33. https://doi.org/10.34773/eu.2021.6.4

33. Zabneva, E. I. (2024). Sociocultural Transformation of Modern Domestic Education. Obshchestvo: filosofiya, istoriya, kul’tura – Society: Philosophy, History, Culture, 1, 15–19. https://doi.org/10.24158/fik.2024.1.1